November 2016 Meeting


Thursday, November 3rd at 7:30 PM

The Ring House
1801 East Jefferson Street
Rockville, MD  20852

Main Presentation Speaker:

Carl Perthel, CMT, SMT Member,
Senior Portfolio Manager
American Asset Management Group, Inc.


“Is the Bull Market Over? A Macro Look at Market Cycles”

In the first part of his presentation, Carl examines the merits of technical analysis and shows why price is the ultimate indicator. Carl will review secular and cyclical “bull” and “bear” markets since the beginning of the 20th century, evaluating their characteristics, significance and repetitive natures, showing the audience why the past may be a prologue. Carl will examine past “bull” and “bear” market valuations to determine whether they should be a consideration in today’s market environment. His goal for you: given the preponderance of technical and fundamental evidence in today’s equity market, should we consider this bull market to be near its end?

After a short break, the second half of Carl’s presentation will be an update on the Halloween Indicator (Sell In May and Go Away) to review its performance over the past six months, while providing historical data going back almost 50 years to support the premise that the “Halloween Indicator” is NOT a trick, but a treat.

Although this presentation will not be recorded, handouts will be provided.

Prior to the meeting, Dennis A. Kranyak, SMT President, will be on Carolann Brown’s radio show on WCRN News Talk Radio AM 830 from 9:00 – 10:00 AM, Thursday, October 20, 2016, and November 3, 2016, the day of the SMT meeting.  For those outside the Boston area, you can listen to the show live on line by going to and clicking on the “Listen Live” icon on the upper right of the home page.  Be sure to allow for some time to set up your computer prior to the start of the broadcast.

The SMT Board of Trustees will NOT meet prior to the monthly meeting.  The next SMT Board meeting will be held on line, date TBD,

 A reminder, our meeting will be held in the downstairs social hall and we will have high speed WiFi available.

If you missed any of our meetings since June 5th, 2014, members can log on to the SMT web site and view the video of the meeting presentation in addition to downloading the presentation. Go to the “Resources” menu tab, then select “PresentVideos”

SMT logo coffee mugs will be available for purchase at the meeting, $5 for members, $7.50 for non-members.  If you are a member and have not picked up your SMT lapel pin, see Sondra Katz at the meeting.  Sondra will also be collecting dues for 2017.  Elections will be held at the December meeting.